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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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