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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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