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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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