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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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