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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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