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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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