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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
IntermodalAs we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.

Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.

Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.

On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.

Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker  

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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