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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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