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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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