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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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