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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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