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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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