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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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