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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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