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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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