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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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