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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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