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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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