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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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