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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
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