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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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