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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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