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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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