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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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