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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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