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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 January 16
LNG BUNKERING IN ASIA: FUELING A PROMISING FUTURE? - REED SMITH
The requirement of a mandatory reduction of sulphur content in bunker fuel proposed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) poses a challe ...
Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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