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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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