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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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