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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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