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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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