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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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