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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 April 16
INDONESIA CS57 COAL INDEX SLIDES SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.07 percent week over week to averaging $38.88 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 04 April 16
CAPE INDEX JUMPED 70% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 01 April 16
ASSESSING THE DRY BULK MARKET AT ROCK BOTTOM - CLARKSONS
While the opening months of the year are typically a weak period for the dry bulk market, the downturn so far this year has been severe. Earnings h ...
Friday, 01 April 16
NINE AM - TIME TO GET AN INDONESIAN LANGUAGE VERSION OF YOUR CHARTERPARTIES - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
For several years, Indonesian law (Article 31, Law Number 24 of 2009) has required that memoranda of understanding (" ...
Friday, 01 April 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.6 million shor ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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