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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 08 April 16
COASTAL ENERGEN CROSSES GENERATION OF 1068 MW AND EXPORT OF 1004 MW FROM ITS 1200 MW IPP
COALspot.com: Coal & Oil (C&O) Group, an India centric Energy & Infrastructure company announced that their Coastal Energen' ...
Friday, 08 April 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 5.4% TO 11 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11 million short ...
Friday, 08 April 16
MINISTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO ISSUE REGULATION TO GUARANTEE THE COAL SUPPLY TO ITS 35K POWER PLANT PROJECTS
COALspot.com: In order to guarantee the supply of coal for 35,000 megawatt (mw) coal based power plants ( still in planning stage), the Minister of ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
CHINA STEEL CAPACITY CUTS FACE SOCIAL, FINANCIAL HURDLES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says today that the Chinese government's supply-side reform of the steel sector faces immense social and financial challenges. Th ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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