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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 March 16
CAPE: ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL WEEK WITH FIXTURES CONCLUDED AT LAST DONE LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Another uneventful week with fixtures concluded at last done levels, CS levels remain around the USD 3 mark, whilst C3 is still just short o ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE THE SELLING PRICE OF COAL TO MINE-MOUTH POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia to review to revise methodology to determine the selling price of co ...
Wednesday, 30 March 16
VALEMAXES: THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE OF TODAY'S DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
At a time that Europe is still dealing with the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Brussels our society is daily bombarded with news of terroris ...
Tuesday, 29 March 16
BULK CARRIER VENTILATION - CAPTAIN PAUL R. WALTON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Moisture damage is a source of many cargo claims. Claimants allege that it is brought about by the ship’s failure t ...
Monday, 28 March 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED SLIGHTLY FIRM; CS 57 INDEX CLOSED WEAK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.03 percent week over week to averaging $38.91 per ton on this past Thursday, ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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