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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 April 16
PANAMAX RATES ARE FIRMING IN BOTH HEMISHEPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
With a great volume our of west Australia, rates were finally moving to upper 3's. and stabilizing towards the middle of the week in ...
Thursday, 07 April 16
BIMCO AND GIIGNL PUBLISH A GROUNDBREAKING VOYAGE CHARTER PARTY FOR LNG TRADE
BIMCO and the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) have today jointly issued the first definitive voyage charter party & ...
Wednesday, 06 April 16
HOW LONG SHIPPING CRISIS WILL BE; WHEN SHOULD OWNERS EXPECT THE BULK CARRIERS TO BECOME PROFITABLE? - INTERMODAL
It is the consensus that dry bulk shipping has been in a crisis for quite some time now. Bulk carrier values are at historical low levels, therefor ...
Tuesday, 05 April 16
DRY BULK REVISITS 1980S LOWS AND FACES UNCERTAIN LONGER TERM OUTLOOK - MSI | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the market near bottom, attention is turning to the length of the downturn, the effect on asset values and the impact of broader demand side c ...
Monday, 04 April 16
THE LOADING, AND SUBSEQUENT DISCHARGE, OF UNSAFE NICKEL ORE - ALL TIME TO 'COUNT' - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent, published, London arbitration award the English tribunal has held that all time lost as a result of loading, ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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