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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 March 16
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX WAS UP TWENTY-FOUR POINTS TO 473 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 25 March 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET WILL GROW BY 1.3% DURING 2016 - BIMCO | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market will keep on suffering, at least until the start of 2017 and possibly well after that, should the current balance of supply and ...
Friday, 25 March 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 9.1% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
PERSISTENT OVERCAPACITY TO PROLONG CHINA'S COAL SECTOR DOWNTURN - FITCH
China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, ...
Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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