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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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