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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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