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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 April 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE 1.43 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 1.43 percent week over week to averaging $38.65 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of 4,600 kcal/kg NAR coal for ...
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH AFRICA RB1 COAL HAS LOST GROUND IN INDIA; RB2 MAY LOSE GRIP IF THE PRICE CROSSES US$ 50 A TON - TRADERS
COALspot.com: Indian coal consumers preferred to buy South Africa RB2 coal instead of RB1 coal recent months due to RB2's low CFR price level. ...
Monday, 18 April 16
CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE 44.66 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 15 April 16
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUES TO FIRM - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a positive freight market for the past few weeks, however, this week the market is taking a small breather, says Fearnleys in it ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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