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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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