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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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