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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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