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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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