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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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