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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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