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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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