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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to rise and inventories are now standing above the five-year average. OPEC decided to maintain production at 31.5 million barrels per day although failed to reach to an agreement in reference to production ceiling. As a result, crude oil prices slumped with Brent and U.S. futures falling below $40 a barrel, for the first time since 2009. Since Saudi Arabia drove a year ago OPEC's choice to maintain production and defend its market share by pressuring higher-cost producers, oil price has slid down 40%. The absence of a limit on OPEC’s production could add millions of barrels of additional crude next year, from countries such as Iran and Iraq, though OPEC plans to discuss accommodation of higher supplies at its next meeting in June, 2016.
OPEC expects global economic growth to close off at 3.1% this year, due to the slowdown in the emerging economies and the low US growth in the third quarter. For 2016, world economic growth is expected to progress to 3.4%, with US growth at 2.5% and total OECD growth at 2.1%. World oil demand is assessed to grow on about 1.25 million b/d, while EIA estimates global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016, with China continuing to be the main driver of non-OECD oil consumption growth. Overall, as global petroleum and other liquids production overtakes consumption, the balance between supply and demand becomes more difficult to be restored, with expectations of a more well-adjusted market pointing to the end of next year.
It should be noted that EIA's crude oil price prediction for 2016 is subject to essential vulnerabilities as the market tries to move towards stability. The oil market faces numerous challenges, including the pace and capacity at which Iranian oil supply reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth and the responsiveness of the excess production/supply to low oil prices. Low oil prices have already caused delays or cancellations of scheduled projects, like the cancellation of the 80,000 b/d Carmon Creek project back in October by Shell.
It goes without saying that in regards to the shipping industry, the implications of lower oil prices are significant. In the beginning of each year Worldscale flat rates are reset, with the bunker component being the most critical element to their calculation, based on prices between October and September. The fall in oil prices has led to a major decline of bunker prices. Accordingly, it is projected that for 2016 Worldscale flat rates will decline by more than 25% on long haul routes and by almost 20% on short haul routes. Bear in mind that for long haul routes, bunker costs are undoubtedly the primary expense borne by the Ship-owners during a voyage.
To conclude with, it is argued that there will need to be more than a slight movement on reserves and demand in order to adjust supply and thus sustain oil prices higher, especially as fears of a long period of an oversupplied market have set in crushing sentiment. Specific policy is needed to be set by major producers either within or outside OPEC, in order to motivate traders that any positive correction in the price of oil will be viable, especially ahead of Iran’s return to the market. Otherwise predictions of another dive of oil prices may come true.
Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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