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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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