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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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