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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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