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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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