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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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