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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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