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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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