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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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