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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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