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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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